Key things to follow in Counter-Strike in 2024

Exciting year 2023 is coming to an end with 2024 already behind the corner.

With numerous ground-breaking headlines in 2023, I believe we are right to expect maybe the most interesting year in professional Counter-Strike yet in 2024.

This post will cover the five most important things to keep an eye on next year when it comes to CS.

1. Counter-Strike 2 is here, but where will it go?

After long waiting from the community, Valve finally released the newest version of Counter-Strike, CS2. While the product was far from polished when it hit our Steams, developers have worked hard to bring the playing and viewing experience closer to the level we got used to with Global Offensive.

Given the active ear on community voices Valve has, it’s fair to assume that we are still yet to see the full potential of CS2.

What should we expect from CS2 in 2024?

Maybe the most discussed difference between the games (CS2 and GO), sub-tick system, seems to be here to stay. Valve has already taken steps to get the sub-tick closer towards previous 128-tick feel but isn’t there quite yet.

With healthy frequency of updates since the launch, we should be expecting Valve to continously enhance the feel of the game.

Will the map pool get a shake-up?

Changes in the map pool hasn’t been unseen recently. Many are calling for maps like Train, Dust 2 or even Cache or Cobblestone to be re-installed.

With the switch to new game, changes in the map pool would not be a surprise.

Bubbling under: community map and operation

For many, community maps have been the reason to play CS. Delayed launch of these was a disappointment for many, but finally we have them back in the game. Will some new type of gameplay emerge as new “surf” or “kz” that will win our hearts?

Given the commercial model of Counter-Strike, it would be fool to assume that we would not see new operation and cases to boost sales. Reportedly, Valve makes more than $50m per month from its in-game case purchases.

To even boost those figures and get more hype around the game, it is almost guaranteed that we will receive a new operation in near future. Whether the launch will be already during 2023 remains to be seen.

2. Return to two majors per year

With the launch of the new game, there was no Major during H2 of 2023. 2024 will get us back to the classic rhythm of two Majors per year both for 2024 in calendars.

PGL CS2 Major Copenhagen 2024 (March)

PGL will have the honour to organize the first ever major in Counter-Strike 2. PGL has previous Major-experience from both Stockholm in 2021 as well as from Antwerp in 2022.

Majors have always been the springboard for smaller teams towards world fame, and with the new game, we should expect healthy number of fresh faces deep at the Major.

The open qualifiers are set to start already in early January, with the Major itself being played at the end of March in Copenhagen.

Perfect World Shanghai Major 2024 (December)

Scheduled from December 1 to December 15, 2024, the Shanghai Major will be the first ever CS Major in Asia, playing a crucial role in expanding CS's reach in the region.Shanghai major taps into a highly lucrative Asian market that, despite its vast potential, has been underrepresented at the professional level in Counter-Strike.

Currenly, VALORANT is the fifth-most player game in China, with CS coming as 10th. With occasional pro tournamets in Asia in past, this Major is possibity for major (pun intented) breakthrough in the popularity of the game in the region.

Should not come as a surprise if we will see more Majors being held outside Europe come 2025 and 2026. With the pro scene currently being Europe-focused, all of us are keeping an eye on health of scenes across other regions.

Two majors mean more viewers, and yes, more money

Valve has always been rather passive when it comes to touching CS’s pro scene, but with Majors giving participating teams and players in-game items, the monetary support from the developer is significant.

For multiple organizations Majors are make or break -type of situation both competitively and commercially.

With “sticker” money for teams reaching seven figures per organization and players taking home lucrative sums to go on top of prize money, it’s no wonder why all the teams are built with Majors and their qualifiers in mind.

While the last major, held in Paris in May 2023 did not reach the viewership numbers of 2022 and 2021 Majors, with the new game there is room for hope to correct the trajectory.

3. Last year of partner leagues (for now)

2024 marks the end of an era in Counter-Strike esports with Valve's decision to ban partner leagues going in to 2025. Exact rulings are yet to be revealed, but the current guidance stands as follows (quote from Valve):

- Tournament organizers will no longer have unique business relationships or other conflicts of interest with teams that participate in their events.

- Invitations to all tournaments will use our ranking system, or otherwise be determined by open qualifiers.

- Any compensation for participating teams—prize pool or otherwise—will be made public and will be driven by objective criteria that can be inspected by the community.

This move by Valve is aimed at promoting fairness and skill-based success in professional Counter-Strike. The ruling addresses the concerns over closed competitive circles influenced by business relationships.

Current partner teams expected to take the biggest hit

On surface, one could think that the biggest sufferers would be the tournament organizers, after all, it’s their product that takes the direct hit. How the truth will unfold is yet to be seen, but I dare to argue that the real impact is felt hardest at the current partner teams.

The reliability of tournament spots has been a luxury (following a monetary investment!) of the largest organizations. With both the revenue shares and the increased visibility guaranteed, the business model of partner teams was built on predictability. That luxury will be cut from 2025 onwards.

Opened competition for tournament spots will increase volatility on scenarios, that can be met with range of approached.

Some teams might look to invest to guarantee to remain high in rankings to secure invitations, while others could be leaning towards scaling the budget downwards.

Regardless of the willingness to spend, it’s hard to see these teams keeping their topline unimpacted without other changes on tournament models assuming Major sticker money to remain on its current level.

Non-partner teams could increase their investments

Non-surprisingly, the news was welcomed with open arms in camps of non-partner teams. Higher chance to participate and get views on the biggest tournaments is foundational for fan-base and brand building.

As mentioned, we do not know the specifics of the future qualification for these tournaments, but one thing is for certain. Number of opportunities and tournaments to play will increase for teams that remain competitive on the server.

Tournament organizers should look to capture the positives

Funny enough, my personal assumption is that the current tournament organizers won’t see a huge change in their popularity. Both Blast and ESL have well-built brands with their pinnacle events that draw eyeballs just based on their successful history.

Possibly losing some of the bigger brand names from participants should be somewhat compensated with better competitiveness. Add the freshness and you have a possibbility to attract fans that have identified as “anti-partner leagues”.

If the smaller teams are hopeful to gain visibility, same hopes are expected to be seen on smaller tournament organizers.

With all the teams being freed from their contracts to individual tournament organizers, the competition to create the best tournament product is open again. Established ESL and Blast will start with a headstart, but majority of the stakeholders hope that Level Playing Field will give us new (and old-new) entrants.

Player market hard to predict until market benchmarks under the new era are established

How the market for players will look remains to be seen. Should be reasonable to expect higher number of teams to realistically aim to build the best roster of the world.

Simultaneously accounting for somewhat expected budget cuts from select partner-teams, the market participants have to be careful not to overpay in case the market cools down.

With 2025 introducing market changes, it will also point of interest to follow the length of the contracts offered and accepted.

With all of this in mind, one should expect an all-time rostermania once the first Major has concluded.

4. Climate status of esports winter

As 2024 unfolds, the esports industry, is navigating its 'winter', a metaphor for the current economic and structural challenges.

While on surface Counter-Strike has not seen high turbulence in 2023, (with even some of the biggest organizations entering the space this year!), the marketing budgets of the sponsors are not expected to be free money for anyone come 2024.

Where there are esports, there will be overambitious projects. With the new game, high count of pro player transfers and importance of Majors, the temptation to spend can be high in multiple offices.

Short-term success is “easy” to gain, but in potentially challenging market environments we will see who are the team owners and managers who aim for the longer term. With high risk, the high return is not guaranteed.

However, it's anticipated that teams with substantial financial backing will have the advantage to both reap immediate benefits and invest in future successes, essentially having their cake and eating it too in this landscape.

With teams looking at the situation from different angles, we should expect some to accelerate, some to maintain current status and some to take more cautious approach.

5. Future of female and academy teams

Gender- and age-restricted tournaments and leagues are always interesting topic for industry participants.

Many of the biggest organizations field three teams at the same time: male, female, and junior. In 2023, especially female CS has seen more action in tournaments and entrances of teams.

Next growth will come from female CS?

With continuing trend of growth in women’s sports, especially in football, it’s interesting to monitor how the development of female-CS will unfold. Never have I met a person who would not hope for more diverse community in male-heavy esports.

Esports is often hyped about its ability to reach consumer segment that is hard to reach in other ways. I would argue that the statement holds true even stronger in female-tournaments. Is there underlying commercial potential yet to be fully captured?

While we hope to see viewership to grow even further, the targeted marketing possibilities these games and teams offer is unmatched.

Will we see new academy league?

In 2023, we didn’t get the chance to enjoy the best prospects to play regularly against each other in any junior or academy league. Since WePlay ceased its Academy League, some of the teams have cut their academy teams, but the overall trend looks to be the opposite.

Teams that remain in the junior-scene are utilizing the teams for securing future talents early on. With small investment, every organization is hopeful to find next Monesy or Jimpphat that they can either promote to their main team or sell with ridiculous ROI.

For a viewer this dynamic has meant that the academy teams has been seen on the lower-tier tournaments. The option to have an academy team in “adults” tournament is two-fold.

At the same time, tournament gets the chance to use big organization’s logo on it’s marketing, but can be cannibalizing its product by offering matches that are not attractive for a casual viewer that thinks “This tournament cannot be good since there are academy teams playing there”.

With betting playing big part in Counter-Strike esports ecosystem, junior teams can be seen as a difficult piece of the puzzle for stakeholders who rely on gambling money.

Time will tell how the female and junior teams and their competitions develop, but the wider the overall Counter-Strike offering, the better it is for the game and its ecosystem.

2024 will be an exciting year in Counter-Strike

With all of the mentioned topics playing part of how the year will unfold, there are multiple other things to follow, of course headlined by games and rankings themselves.

With the new game, two upcoming majors and healthy underlying player count, we should look at 2024 with open eyes and excitement.

Thanks for reading, may 2024 be the best year yet for you!

PS.

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